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In this work, we consider the problem of learning a reduced-order model of a high-dimensional stochastic nonlinear system with control inputs from noisy data. In particular, we develop a hybrid parametric/nonparametric model that learns the “average” linear dynamics in the data using dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) and the nonlinearities and model uncertainties using Gaussian process (GP) regression and compare it with total least-squares dynamic mode decomposition (tlsDMD), extended here to systems with control inputs (tlsDMDc). The proposed approach is also compared with existing methods, such as DMDconly and GP-only models, in two tasks: controlling the stochastic nonlinear Stuart–Landau equation and predicting the flowfield induced by a jet-like body force field in a turbulent boundary layer using data from large-scale numerical simulations. 

It is shown that laminar vortex rings can be generated by impulsive body forces having particular spatial and temporal characteristics. The method produces vortex rings in a fluid initially at rest, and once generated, the flow field automatically satisfies the boundary conditions and is divergence-free. Numerical simulations and analytical models show that the strength of these rings can be accurately predicted by considering diffusion alone, despite the nonlinear nature of the generation process. A particularly simple model, which approximates the source of vorticity within vertical slabs, is proposed. This model predicts the ring circulation almost as accurately as a model that uses the exact geometry of the source of vorticity. It is found that when the duration of the force is less than a timescale based on the force radius and fluid viscosity, the ring circulation can be predicted accurately using an inviscid model. 

ABSTRACT Galaxies and galaxy groups located along the line of sight towards gravitationally lensed quasars produce high-order perturbations of the gravitational potential at the lens position. When these perturbation are too large, they can induce a systematic error on H0 of a few per cent if the lens system is used for cosmological inference and the perturbers are not explicitly accounted for in the lens model. In this work, we present a detailed characterization of the environment of the lens system WFI 2033−4723 ($$z_{\rm src} =\,$$1.662, $$z_{\rm lens}=\,$$0.6575), one of the core targets of the H0LiCOW project for which we present cosmological inferences in a companion paper. We use the Gemini and ESO-Very Large telescopes to measure the spectroscopic redshifts of the brightest galaxies towards the lens, and use the ESO-MUSE integral field spectrograph to measure the velocity-dispersion of the lens ($$\sigma _{\rm {los}}= 250^{+15}_{-21}$$  km s−1) and of several nearby galaxies. In addition, we measure photometric redshifts and stellar masses of all galaxies down to i < 23 mag, mainly based on Dark Energy Survey imaging (DR1). Our new catalogue, complemented with literature data, more than doubles the number of known galaxy spectroscopic redshifts in the direct vicinity of the lens, expanding to 116 (64) the number of spectroscopic redshifts for galaxies separated by less than 3 arcmin (2 arcmin ) from the lens. Using the flexion-shift as a measure of the amplitude of the gravitational perturbation, we identify two galaxy groups and three galaxies that require specific attention in the lens models. The ESO MUSE data enable us to measure the velocity-dispersions of three of these galaxies. These results are essential for the cosmological inference analysis presented in Rusu et al.